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Articles

Hail, Malthus!

Toni Vogel Carey on how easily and dangerously poor reasoning can become accepted wisdom.

A specious argument, says Webster’s Dictionary, is one with “deceptive attractiveness or allure,” giving “a false look of truth or genuineness.” Here is a case in point, one that plunged England into depression for half a century and that had serious, even fatal, consequences for real people.

The Principle of Population

In 1751 Benjamin Franklin predicted that the population of America would double in 20-25 years, so that in another century “the greatest number of Englishmen will be on this Side of the Water.” It was understood that America was unique, with a small population and almost limitless arable land. In Europe, by contrast, Adam Smith noted in Wealth of Nations, “the population cannot be expected to double in less than five hundred years.